how does globalization affect nation-states in times of pandemic?
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how does globalization affect nation-states in times of pandemic?
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The COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in a new climate of uncertainty which is fuelling protectionism and playing into nationalist narratives. Globalisation is under significant threat as governments scramble to reduce their vulnerability to the virus by limiting global trade and flows of people. With the imposition of border closures and strict migration measures, there have been major disruptions in Africa’s global supply chains with adverse impacts on employment and poverty. The African economies overly reliant on single export-orientated industries, such as oil and gas, are expected to be severely hit. This situation is further aggravated by tumbling oil prices and a lowered global demand for African non-oil products. The agricultural sector, which should buffer these shocks, is also being affected by the enforcement of lockdowns which threaten people’s livelihoods and food security. Lockdowns may not be the answer in Africa and the issue of public health pandemic response will need to be addressed by enacting context-specific policies which should be implemented in a humane way. In addressing the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 on African nations, we argue that governments should prioritize social protection programmes to provide people with resources to maintain economic productivity while limiting job losses. International funders are committing assistance to Africa for this purpose, but generally as loans (adding to debt burdens) rather than as grants. G20 agreement so suspend debt payments for a year will help, but is insufficient to fiscal need. Maintaining cross-border trade and cooperation to continue generating public revenues is desirable. New strategies for diversifying African economies and limiting their dependence on external funding by promoting trade with a more regionalised (continental) focus as promoted by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, while not without limitations, should be explored. While it is premature to judge the final economic and death toll of COVID-19, African leaders’ response to the pandemic, and the support they receive from wealthier nations, will determine its eventual outcomes.
Background
Even before COVID-19, globalisation was already under significant threat from rising nationalism forcing governments and businesses to define new constructs and priorities . This response to the conflicting forces of globalisation and nationalism has given rise to the term “slowbalisation”, coined by The Economist to describe declines in trade, multinational profits, and foreign investment and leading to arguments that we have now passed ‘peak globalisation’. The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have introduced additional fear and uncertainty among populations, resulting in new behaviours and beliefs . People are becoming more suspicious and less accepting of foreign things and all this is occurring on a background of increasing anarchy in global governance . The economic interdependence and multilateral norms or rules that globalisation emphasised over the past several decades, creating the global supply chains that contributed to the economic growth many low- and middle-income countries experienced since the 1990s, is facing formidable and existential threats. Although arguments that the globalisation era is over, or at least on the wane, may be premature, the economic impacts of the pandemic are rattling its inherent assumptions with little clear indication of what may follow in its (eventually) subsiding wake. In the meanwhile, the economic interdependence that characterized recent globalisation is becoming unglued, and with it the policy assumptions of many governments worldwide and the (already) fragile livelihoods of billions of people. Nowhere is the concern over the health impacts of this greater than in Africa.
Whilst governments across Africa hasten to reinforce measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 in the context of fragile health systems, several pertinent questions arise.Footnote 1 How can socio-economic development stimulated by globalisation practices related to increased international trade be sustained or, if not, reformed in ways that still enhance livelihood opportunities? How might African governments successfully limit community transmission of COVID-19 while also providing economic relief to families and businesses affected by physical distancing or ‘lockdown’ strategies? In this commentary we explore the challenges facing most African countries in improving the population health outcomes in the current COVID-19 and future pandemics, while promoting a renewed globalisation based upon health and social development goals and not solely on economic growth measures.